Learning as an amateur pundit

Although I always suspected that I was a political junkie, I only had unmistakable confirmation of my obsession these last couple weeks. Laura knows how much like to talk about politics. One of the fascinating aspects about political culture is that everyone seems to have an opinion, whether it is well-founded or not. I also have opinions, some of which are based on deep thinking and care for the reality of the world -- and others that are probably just unexamined prejudices. I do tend to be reticent about expressing my opinions about things that I've not through very carefully. Overall, I'm pleased with my disposition towards careful, thoughtful expression.

The downside though is that you can learn a lot by actually just saying what you believe, without worrying primarily about whether you have all the facts and reasoning straighten out. I find it difficult to say what I feel in my gut to be true if I haven't had a chance to carefully think everything through. The problem is that some matters are so complicated that it's difficult, if not impossible, to reason everything through Before saying anything at all. The end result would be confused silence.

The upshot of this musing: make a prediction on something relatively minor and then to see how my prediction bears out. OK -- I'm pretty keen to watch tonight's vice presidential debate, wondering how it will affect public perception of Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin. Let me guess what will happen:

  • I don't believe that Sarah Palin is adequately prepared for the job of vice-president, as evidenced by her weak answers during her interview with Katie Couric. However, I think she'll do quite well in tonight's debate. She'll be able to come across as very personable in her prepared remarks, and I think she'll be successful in staying vague in areas she doesn't know much about. I expect her to be well prepared. I think that Joe Biden, in trying to exercise restraint in not indulging his trademark loquacious, won't be able to put Palin in a bad light. I also don't think the moderators of the debate will be too effective in highlighting Palin's shortcomings.
  • I don't expect Joe Biden to say anything really silly. In fact, I'm concerned that item will be to restrained because he might get dinged for appearing to be overbearing (too knowledgeable???)
  • It's too bad that we are wondering about matters (such as whether Biden or Palin will slip up), stuff that really shouldn't be the focus of our attention. I don't know much about Joe Biden, but was deeply impressed with him when I heard him on Sept 11, 2001, urging the country to remain calm and exercise restraint.
  • Overall I don't think this debate will shift things too much in terms of the public perception of the two tickets, though some think it might.

This is what I think will happen, though I'm far from confident that I'll be correct. I may have to eat my words! I'm struck by how much my expectations for this debate -- and my whole framing -- have been strongly influenced by media coverage and analysis. The interesting thing for me will be to compare the predictions with what actually happens and analyze where and how I predicted correctly and where I didn't. (The outcome of tonight's debate isn't necessarily the most important thing for me to be pondering today but it was the first thing I reached for as the subject of my amateur punditry.) I hope that this process of making predictions and seeing how I do will help me become a more insightful -- and humble -- analyst of the world.

P.S. I'll have to compare my views with something like Cue The Comeback:

    So, my advice to Governor Palin is to stop letting your fussy handlers freak you out. You're going to do just fine. You won't be on that stage alone. Biden is bound to open himself up for at least a couple of good scoldings. The media is poised to write your comeback story. Your base is going to love you no matter what. And if things do happen to go badly, you can always claim that Ifill wanted to take you out as a way to sell more books. All things considered, there's really no way you can lose. Unless this Ifill book dust-up compels the debate commission to replace her with Katie Couric tomorrow night. Then you're pretty much screwed.

Summarizing where the presidential candidates stand on the issues

Although I am an Obama supporter and have some sense of where he and his opponents stand on various issues, I haven't worked to make my understanding systematic. In addition to reading widely and compiling my findings, I figure that I could get a jumpstart by first studying the Wikipedia article Comparison of United States presidential candidates, 2008. One thing that you immediately learn at a glance from the article is that there are people other than McCain and Obama running for President. I like most people tend to ignore those minor candidates because they have very little practical chance of winning. However, their advocacy for other positions serve to critique and illuminate the mainline candidates' positions. It's all too easy to confine ourselves unnecessarily to the relatively narrow spectrum of thinking represented by Democrats and Republicans.

Following the financial crisis these last two days

I've been reading tons about the proposed plan to bail out Wall Street (and save us all?) What I twittered this morning ("I'm seriously worried that the Bush admin is trying to pull another fast one with the Paulson plan -- time to call my congressional reps.") is still pretty much how I feel tonight.

I wish I could just summarize for you this complicated situation. Instead, I'll just list some of the articles I've read and let you draw your own conclusions. (I am proud to say that I did call the office of my local congressman (Mike Doyle) to express my concerns.)

  1. “The Wall Street Bailout Plan, Explained - Question - NYTimes.com,” http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/21/business/21qanda.html?em.
  2. Brian Knowlton and David M. Herszenhorn, “Bipartisan Support for Wall St. Rescue Plan Emerges,” The New York Times, September 22, 2008, sec. Business, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/22/business/22talkshow.html?hp.
  3. “Fair Game - Your Money at Work, Fixing Others’ Mistakes - NYTimes.com,” http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/21/business/21gret.html?em.
  4. “Foreign Banks Hope Bailout Will Be Global - NYTimes.com,” http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/22/business/22global.html?hp=&pagewanted=all.
  5. Thomas L. Friedman, “No Laughing Matter,” The New York Times, September 21, 2008, sec. Opinion, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/21/opinion/21friedman.html?em.
  6. “Few Limits Proposed for Treasury - WSJ.com,” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122204156493561237.html?mod=article-outset-box.
  7. “Banks Rush to Shape Rescue Plan - WSJ.com,” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122204115528161189.html?mod=article-outset-box#articleTabs%3Darticle.
  8. “No deal - Paul Krugman - Op-Ed Columnist - New York Times Blog,” http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/20/no-deal/.
  9. “U.S. Bailout Plan Calms Markets, But Struggle Looms Over Details - WSJ.com,” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122191819568460053.html#articleTabs%3Darticle.
  10. “Paulson Bailout Plan a Historic Swindle,” http://www.thenation.com/doc/20081006/greider.
  11. “Mixed reviews of relief plan sent to Congress,” http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/09/20/MN28131DBP.DTL.
  12. “Powell Memo - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia,” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powell_Memo.
  13. “A Fair Plan to Pay for Economic Recovery,” http://www.thenation.com/doc/20081006/collins.
  14. “Democrats Begin to Set Own Bailout Terms - NYTimes.com,” http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/22/business/22paulson.html?hp=&pagewanted=all.
  15. John Harwood and Michael Cooper, “2 Candidates Back Bailout, With Caveats,” The New York Times, September 22, 2008, sec. U.S. / Politics, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/22/us/politics/22campaign.html?pagewanted=all.
  16. “High Anxiety,” http://www.weeklystandard.com/Utilities/printer_preview.asp?idArticle=15590&R=13C1A13C72.
  17. “Busch: The Political Process And The Plan - CNBC Guest Blog - CNBC.com,” http://www.cnbc.com/id/26835648/print/1/displaymode/1098/.
  18. “The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan,” http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/09/trust-us.html#more.
  19. “Democrats want pay limits, loan aid in bailout,” http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/09/22/national/w091157D44.DTL&tsp=1.
  20. “John Steele Gordon on the Financial Mess: Greed, Stupidity, Delusion and Some More Greed - Freakonomics - Opinion - New York Times Blog,” http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/22/john-steele-gordon-on-the-financial-mess-greed-stupidity-delusion-and-some-more-greed/.
  21. “News Analysis - In Bailout, Seeing a Need for a Penalty - News Analysis - NYTimes.com,” http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/23/business/23skeptics.html?hp=&pagewanted=all.

I’d vote for Obama if I could….

Deciding which of the candidates running for president of the USA must surely be one of the most important decisions as an American citizen can make this fall. As a Canadian living in the US as a permanent resident, I don't have the vote. However, I would urge anyone reading this blog who can vote to vote for Barack Obama in November. I won't attempt to make an argument today for why you should vote for Obama. Instead, I'll simply express my support for Obama and follow my friend Lloyd's lead by embedding one of Obama's latest political ads ("Plan for Change"):

Lloyd quotes the text of the speech, which you can find in many places, including an analysis of the speech in the NY Times today, which concluded that the ad "is substantive, providing a simple, easy-to-follow outline of Mr. Obama’s campaign promises, but its length and monotonous visuals could lose the viewer’s attention."

Carnegie Library of Pittsburgh, Squirrel Hill Branch

One of the first pieces of official business for me upon relocating to Pittsburgh this fall was to obtain a library card. I've been very happy with the Squirrel Hill branch of our public library (the Carnegie Library of Pittsburgh). It's not a large building, and there are not a lot of books at the branch -- but the selection and decor are winning. Moreover, the reading chairs provide a nice view of Forbes Avenue while you immerse yourself in your book or magazine.

following the predictions for Obama vs. McCain

The American presidential election has become quite a horse race. As a political junky, I like the follow the latest predictions of who will win and why. Websites that I have found helpful for this purpose include:

Social life around books

In posts to come, I will write about books that are currently on my mind and my reading list. But first: a bit about the process of discussing books on the web.

Over the last couple of years, I've used various websites that let you record books that you own or read and what you think of those books: LibraryThing, goodreads, Visual Bookshelf (a Facebook application), and Shelfari This selection of sites doesn't even include my Amazon wishlist ("Stuff I find interesting"), a WorldCat "Stuff I find interesting" list, my Google Books "My Library", and other lists I must have forgotten about. Some of these lists I use actively, while joining (in response to a friend's request) has been the only activity I've performed.

I've been intrigued by book-oriented social network services for some time now, but none of them has won me over. I explained my reluctance to adopt these services on p. 238 of my mashup book:

One thing that keeps me from investing too heavily in these sites is the struggle of how to move my book data in and out of any of these sites. For any given site, I look for APIs that help in that regard as well as any feeds that might allow users to easily import and export data.

In other words, I'd like to use any website of choice and have my information show up on all of them. I'd even be willing to program such information exchange (that's where the APIs come in.)

When I write about books, I have a choice about where to write -- on this blog or on one of the book social network services, or in a traditional print publication (among others). I will try to write in a lot of places and see what happens.

Learning from the everyday

I've not thought seriously about physics since I finished my Ph.D. in biophysics in 1997. But now I think often about how to get back into studying physics. Not the physics of graduate school requirements, but the physics of everyday life. Doesn't it make sense to get students to tie their learning to what they encounter in their own worlds? Of course, the world is much bigger than what's in our faces and immediately under our feet. But it's in the way buildings stand, water freezes and boils, and how insects fly that are the hints to the deepest stuff we know. Like Lex Luthor quipped: "Some people can read War and Peace and come away thinking it's a simple adventure story. Others can read the ingredients on a chewing gum wrapper and unlock the secrets of the universe."

To find out whether there's been much work put into designing curriculum based on everyday life, I will look at references such as:

Taking First Steps in the Right Direction

First thing yesterday morning, I took a 2 mile stroll around my neighborhood. I used to go for long walks all the time but had settled into a rather sedentary lifestyle while writing my book. I had certainly thought often about how to get in better shape.

Yesterday morning, without all my plans in place, I decided to pause the planning and just walk! Lesson for myself: taking a simple action in the direction in which I want to go is more effective than continued planning. (I don't have to convince myself that some planning is important but I'm much more likely to over-cogitate than to under-think situations.)